February 15, 2005 06:48AM
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Registered: 19 years ago
Posts: 3,874
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Hi all,
While I agree that correlation does not necessarily imply causation the GW models have an added element - that of mechanism.
The drinking beer analogy fails because there is no understandible mechanism whereby Anthony's beer drinking could affect global temperatures. The bird analogy fails because there is no known mechanism whereby the presense of birds can make all of the grass grow greener.
A better analogy would be continental drift. When Wegner proposed his hypothesis he had a good correlation between the shapes of the continents and the fossil species found where the coastline "jigsaw" fit together. However, what he didn't have was any mechanism whereby the continents could move. In effect he had a case built on circumstancial evidence and, rightly, the hypothesis was not accepted by the scintific community. When it was discovered that drift could be accounted for by upwhelling at the mid-ocean trenches and subduction at the edges of the continental plates the correlation could be explained.
With global warming we have a situation where, according to the best models we have (and, admittedly, they aren't perfect yet) we have a rise in global temperatures that is higher than that predicted when only non-human events are factored in. We also have a correlated rise in the output of man-made greenhouse gasses. Crucially, we also have a physical mechanism whereby man-made gasses can influence global temperatures. The argument is really whether the theory is valid; if it isn't we have a logically unprovable correlation, if it is we have an data that is predicted by theory and, as such, is scientifically acceptable subject to continuous testing of the theory.
Pete
God is our guide! from field, from wave, From plough, from anvil, and from loom; We come, our country's rights to save, And speak a tyrant faction's doom: We raise the watch-word liberty; We will, we will,we will be free!
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Anthony |
February 12, 2005 03:30PM |
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Joanne |
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Katherine Reece |
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Anthony |
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Katherine Reece |
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Warwick L Nixon |
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Joanne |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Stephen Tonkin |
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Anthony |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
February 13, 2005 02:24PM |
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wirelessguru1 |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
February 14, 2005 07:08AM |
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wirelessguru1 |
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Joanne |
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wirelessguru1 |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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John Wall |
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wirelessguru1 |
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Simon |
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wirelessguru1 |
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Dave L |
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Simon |
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Anthony |
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Katherine Reece |
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Katherine Reece |
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laura |
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Joanne |
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laura |
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Joanne |
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Simon |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Joanne |
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Simon |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Simon |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Simon |
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wirelessguru1 |
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Simon |
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wirelessguru1 |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
February 15, 2005 02:59AM |
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Simon |
February 15, 2005 05:08PM |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Simon |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
February 15, 2005 03:45PM |
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Simon |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Simon |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Joanne |
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Simon |
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Joanne |
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Simon |
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Pete Clarke |
February 15, 2005 06:48AM |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
February 15, 2005 08:48AM |
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Pete Clarke |
February 15, 2005 10:04AM |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Joanne |
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Pete Clarke |
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Joanne |
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Pete Clarke |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Joanne |
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Simon |
February 14, 2005 04:54PM |
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Anthony |
February 14, 2005 08:14PM |
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wirelessguru1 |
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Simon |
February 15, 2005 05:59PM |
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wirelessguru1 |
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Pacal |
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Anthony |
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Joanne |
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Katherine Reece |
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Pete Clarke |
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Joanne |
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darkuser |
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wirelessguru1 |
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darkuser |
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Lee |
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Katherine Reece |
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darkuser |
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Joanne |
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darkuser |
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wirelessguru1 |
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darkuser |
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wirelessguru1 |
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darkuser |
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wirelessguru1 |
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darkuser |
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lobo-hotei |
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wirelessguru1 |
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darkuser |
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wirelessguru1 |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Joanne |
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darkuser |
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Joanne |
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Pete Clarke |
February 18, 2005 03:49AM |
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Joanne |
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Pete Clarke |
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Joanne |
February 21, 2005 10:59AM |
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wirelessguru1 |
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Pete Clarke |
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Anthony |
February 17, 2005 07:59PM |
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Joanne |
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Anthony |
February 18, 2005 11:57AM |
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Simon |
February 18, 2005 12:14PM |
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Simon |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
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Simon |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
February 18, 2005 01:15PM |
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wirelessguru1 |
February 18, 2005 01:25PM |
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Simon |
February 18, 2005 01:47PM |
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Tommi Huhtamaki |
February 18, 2005 02:00PM |
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wirelessguru1 |
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darkuser |
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