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May 2, 2024, 11:30 pm UTC    
June 30, 2011 07:55AM
O -
I would actually like to see a quantification of these 'disasters' not just in the marked/selected years, but across the intervening years as well.
It should certainly be limited to purely natural disasters, so as to eliminate any chance of coincidence between human interaction & machines (like a plane crash or a fire in a city)
It should assign a numerical value to a natural disaster based on the surface area affected and not on the population it affects. Population is too ephemeral a variable across the span of time of a single century, much less a millennium.

Essentially I'm saying you should eliminate any human variables in disasters when you quantify them, rather like pretending we humans weren't even here.

Once the scale of the disaster is quantified, the catastrophic nature of a given year can be found by simply adding each disasters quantification together.

This allows the comparison of one year to another, or even a decade to another. Thus, if these years you've picked were truly catastrophic, their totals should be rather significantly higher than any surrounding years.

Your only real limitation in this comparison will be the duration of recorded history. You can't track the bottleneck events of ~70kya and ~45kya or mega-asteroid impact events of the distant past, but you can track at least 2-500 years worth of our own record history. A single century would at least give some solid credence in numbers, but I'd recommend 2 at a minimum... far enough back to include the year without a summer, 1812.

If you do take up this research challenge, you should be sure to list references from which you pulled catastrophes, your assigned scale value (and the reasoning for that scale), and be prepared to add additional natural disasters that others may point out you are missing.

Frankly, such a centralized list would be an invaluable resource that anyone could use. If you divorced it from your theory first, you could then show it in support of your theory... but if you combine that list with your theory, then both will get dismissed.

if you quest for truth, then define it in a very rigorous fashion without postulation, theory or speculation. Once you've defined the data rigorously, then you can build a theory. Without that separate and rigorous data set, your theory isn't even a theory - it's flight of fancy and cannot be taken seriously (no offense intended)

If you quest for truth, you must first question everything you know and then question everything else after you've gotten the first answers.
Subject Author Posted

December 21st 2012

clairyfairy June 14, 2011 04:33PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Hermione June 26, 2011 12:21PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Ogygos June 26, 2011 01:31PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Hermione June 26, 2011 02:32PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Ogygos June 26, 2011 03:39PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Byrd June 30, 2011 11:36PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Ogygos July 01, 2011 09:28AM

Re: December 21st 2012

JonnyMcA July 02, 2011 01:44PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Hermione July 02, 2011 02:30PM

Re: December 21st 2012

JonnyMcA July 02, 2011 03:00PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Ogygos June 28, 2011 04:23PM

December 21st 2012

Jammer June 29, 2011 06:30AM

Re: December 21st 2012

sansahansan June 30, 2011 07:55AM

Re: December 21st 2012

Ogygos June 30, 2011 03:48PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Jammer July 05, 2011 01:49PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Ogygos July 20, 2011 07:20AM

Re: December 21st 2012

Jammer July 20, 2011 01:45PM

Re: December 21st 2012

clairyfairy July 02, 2011 05:02PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Byrd July 02, 2011 09:33PM

Re: December 21st 2012

clairyfairy July 05, 2011 02:26PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Jammer July 06, 2011 12:54PM

Re: December 21st 2012

clairyfairy July 08, 2011 01:39PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Warwick L Nixon July 12, 2011 01:18PM

Re: December 21st 2012

Byrd July 14, 2011 10:13PM

Re: December 21st 2012

clairyfairy August 01, 2011 12:47PM

Re: December 21st 2012

JonnyMcA July 05, 2011 04:16PM



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